DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Third Quarter of 2025

Release Date: 10 Jul, 2025

REPORT SUMMARY

The Overall Air Trade Index has returned to the level observed during the initial US-China trade tensions in Q3 2019. Moreover, nearly 90% of local air traders lack familiarity with the latest developments in rapidly evolving global trade policies. Key areas of concern include recent adjustments to tariffs and regulations, as well as tariff calculations.

• The index for the Americas recorded its lowest level since 2022 and showed the weakest performance in B2C transactions, while the Asia Pacific region remained relatively stable compared to previous quarters.
• Following the 90-day suspension of US-China trade tariffs initiated on 14 May 2025, 29% of local air traders reported an increase in urgent orders.
• Nearly half (48%) of the local air traders have fully passed the additional US trade tariffs onto customers, while 45% have chosen to share these costs with customers.
• Approximately 10% of local air traders consider themselves familiar with the latest trade developments, indicating that a significant 90% struggle to keep pace with the rapid policy changes. Their primary concerns include recent adjustments to tariffs and customs, along with tariff calculations and applications.
• In light of the ever-changing trade environment, local air traders have identified Southeast Asia as the top market for trade potential, followed by Europe and Greater China.
• Over the past two years, the proportion of air traders prioritising carbon emission reductions has steadily increased, reflecting a significant shift in industry attitudes and a robust commitment to sustainable operational practices.

Mr Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “The air trade index has experienced a further decline of 3.4 points, underscoring the ongoing challenges confronting the air trade sector. As we navigate through the complexities of the air trade landscape, it is evident that recent tariff adjustments and evolving global trade policies are significantly impacting the industry. The current downturn in the air trade index highlights the urgent need for strategic adaptations. Notably, nearly 90% of local air traders expressed unfamiliarity with the changes in tariffs, highlighting the necessity to prioritize communication and education to empower the air traders.

The commitment to sustainability is encouraging, with 79% of air traders actively seeking to reduce carbon emissions. This reflects a broader shift towards responsible business practices. Looking ahead, Southeast Asia emerged as a promising market for growth, and we remain dedicated to supporting SMEs in navigating these challenges and seizing new opportunities. HKPC’s ‘The Cradle – Going Global Service Centre’ offers one-stop connectivity, technical support and professional services to assist SMEs in their global expansion efforts.”

Download the latest report of DTI (PDF version) (Text-only version).

Download of DTI Quarterly Report

Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & Parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier items and other items that do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.