DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Second Quarter of 2026

Release Date: 16 Apr, 2026

REPORT SUMMARY

In Q2 2026, the Overall Air Trade Index rebounded to 37.3, marking a six-quarter high since Q4 2024. The recovery was driven by strong gains in the Americas Index - possibly reflecting the temporary easing of U.S. tariff pressures - alongside robust Asian demand and a strong uplift in (re)exports.

• The Overall Air Trade Index climbed 4.5 points to 37.3 in Q2 2026, reaching its highest level since Q4 2024. The increase was underpinned by a strong rebound in (re-)exports (+6.2 points), while imports also recorded a moderate increase (+2.1 points), remaining broadly in line with the same quarter last year.
• Market performance improved across most regions and key commodities. The Americas and Asia Pacific led the recovery, while Europe was the only market to record a decline, reflecting softer import activity. Among commodities, Apparel & Clothing Accessories and Electronic Products & Parts outperformed, whereas Gifts, Toys & Houseware softened following earlier strength.
• In anticipation of the EU's upcoming €3 customs fee on low-value goods effective from 1 July 2026, over 90% of sellers exporting to Europe who intend to manage the impact through pricing adjustments plan to either pass on or share the additional customs cost with consumers.
• Against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. and EU trade policy uncertainties, air traders exporting to Europe and/or Americas identified Southeast Asia (37%) as the key alternative market with strong growth potential.
• When expanding internationally, “Complex tariff and customs clearance procedures” (23%) and “High logistics and delivery costs” (20%) emerged as the top challenges for air traders. Nonetheless, over 85% maintained a neutral or positive outlook towards overseas expansion.
• The results for this quarter have not incorporated the possible implications of recent incidents in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, which will be assessed in the subsequent readings.

Mr Edmond LAI, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “Air trade continued its upward trajectory in Q2 2026, reaching a six-quarter high, underpinned by a strong rebound in (re-)exports and steady import recovery. The Americas and Asia Pacific led the regional improvement, while Southeast Asia is gaining traction as promising alternative market amid ongoing global trade policy shifts. The resilience in product variety and the recovery in sales volume reflect traders’ adaptability to evolving demand patterns. As the industry prepares for upcoming regulatory changes in Europe, air traders are responding with pragmatic strategies, including pricing adjustments and market diversification, to sustain growth in a complex global environment.”

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Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & Parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier items and other items that do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.