DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – First Quarter of 2023

Release Date: 17 Jan, 2023

REPORT SUMMARY

The Overall Air Trade Index has stabilised in Q1 2023 as a result of the improvement in import performance and a more positive outlook on B2C business. Despite the global economic uncertainties, nearly 60% of local air traders identified new potential markets in 2023.

• Contributed by the growth in imports (+2.6 points), the Overall Air Trade Index slightly stabilised (+0.6 points) after the retreat in the previous quarter. Also, all sub-indices rebounded, especially Product Variety Index and Shipment Urgency Index, both of which rose by 4 points.
• A strong recovery in Online B2C business outlook was observed, as the proportion of local air traders with online business expecting an increase in its sales in Q1 2023 rebounded by 10 percentage points.
• Local traders had a better outlook on European (+4 points) and Asia Pacific (+2 points) markets at the start of 2023, while their outlook on the Americas markets has been on a downward trend since Q1 2022. Nevertheless, the United States was identified as the market with the highest potential in 2023 among the local air traders, followed by China and Germany.
• Although global inflation is strongly affecting all aspects of the economy, over half (54%) of the local air traders had no plan to adjust their shipping prices in Q1 2023. Also, 23% indicated they would maintain their previous price adjustment range. The proportions of air traders who expected to increase or lower their shipping prices more than usual or lower were 10% and 13% respectively.
• When asked to identify the market(s) with the highest potential in 2023, 57% of local air traders identified 1 to 2 market(s) outside of their main import / (re-)export markets, which implies the possibility of expansions to new markets.

Mr Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “Mixed results from this quarter’s Air Trade Index have been observed. On the positive side, the Overall Air Trade Index has slightly stabilised. Air traders had an improved outlook towards the European and Asia Pacific markets, and expectations towards online B2C business also became more positive. All these suggest that the worst time may be over. However, the declining trend in the Americas Index as well as the economic recession in the European markets have also brought along a gloomy outlook to the air trade business. Nevertheless, the United States was chosen to be the top market with the highest potentials in 2023, reflecting that air traders are still confident towards this traditional air trade market. On the other hand, with China re-opening to the world and Hong Kong lifting almost all its quarantine and social distancing measures, air traders are advised to get prepared for the increasing demand. They should also expand to other markets to minimise the impacts on business by the economic recession in Europe and continuous inflation in the United States.”

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Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies associated with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier service and other items which do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.