DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Fourth Quarter of 2026

Release Date: 12 Oct, 2026

REPORT SUMMARY

The Overall Air Trade Index remained above the 40-point mark in Q4 2026, supported by stronger imports and activity across Asia Pacific and Europe, with air traders expecting stable peak-season volumes.

• The Overall Air Trade Index edged down by 1.1 points to 40.6 in Q4 2026, remaining the second-highest reading recorded in the past two years. While the (re-)exports softened, the Air Imports Index further rose by 3.8 points to 42.9, marking its third consecutive quarter of growth.
• Market performance remained mixed. Asia Pacific and Europe continued to strengthen, supported by strong growth in the Chinese Mainland and improving import activity respectively. In contrast, the Americas recorded the sharpest decline among all markets.
• Commodity performance was led by Food & Beverage, which rose to a three-year high of 52. Electronic Products & Parts also reached a two-year high of 45, while Apparel & Clothing Accessories and Watches, Clocks & Jewellery softened amid softer (re-)export activity.
• Ahead of the Thanksgiving and pre-Christmas peak season, over half of respondents (56%) expected air trade volume to remain broadly stable. Positive sentiment (23%) reached its highest level since 2022, while negative sentiment (21%) declined to its lowest level.
• Following the new U.S. tariff measures introduced on 24 July 2026, air traders exporting to the Americas identified higher operating costs (22%), supply chain adjustments (20%), and increased business uncertainty (20%) as the most significant expected impacts, reflecting growing concerns over cost pressures and operational disruption.
• Regarding the EU’s planned B2C handling fee in November 2026, over one-quarter (27%) of sellers exporting to Europe expect limited business impact. Nevertheless, respondents anticipate pricing adjustments, additional customs and documentation requirements, and pressure on volumes and profit margins.
• Despite the rapid advancement of AI and related technologies, air traders remain cautious about their practical benefits. While 29% of respondents reported positive outcomes or saw future potential from AI adoption, 70% have yet to observe significant benefits or remain uncertain, suggesting that adoption across the sector remains at a relatively early stage.

Mr Edmond LAI, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “The Q4 2026 results indicate that Hong Kong’s air trade sector continues to demonstrate resilience amid a changing global trade landscape. While export momentum moderated during the quarter, sustained growth in imports and improving conditions across Asia Pacific and Europe helped maintain overall market stability. The improvement in peak-season sentiment is also a positive signal, reflecting greater confidence among air traders compared with recent years. Nevertheless, ongoing policy changes in major markets and rising operating costs remain important considerations. Moving forward, greater supply chain flexibility, market diversification and the effective use of emerging technologies will be key to sustaining competitiveness and capturing new opportunities.”

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Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & Parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier items and other items that do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.