DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Third Quarter of 2026

Release Date: 20 Jul, 2026

REPORT SUMMARY

In Q3, 2026, the Overall Air Trade Index rose to 41.7, the highest level recorded since the Q2 2023 peak, signalling a continued recovery in Hong Kong’s air trade outlook. However, external uncertainties, particularly the ongoing developments in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to exert pressure on air freight rates and fuel costs, prompting traders to adopt more active cost-management strategies.

• The Overall Air Trade Index further climbed by 4.4 points to 41.7 in Q3 2026, reaching its highest level since Q2 2023. The increase was primarily driven by strong growth in (re-)exports (+4.7 points), which outpaced the Air Imports Index (+3.9 points).
• Market performance improved across most regions and key commodities. The Americas posted the strongest growth and recorded the highest reading among all markets, while Asia Pacific region surpassed the 40-point level. Among commodities, Gifts, Toys & Houseware registered significant growth and reached a historical high, while Apparel & Clothing Accessories remained broadly stable.
• Amid ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and developments around the Strait of Hormuz, two-thirds (67%) of air traders expect overall air freight rates to face upward pressure in the second half of the year.
• In response to rising fuel costs, over 80% of air traders indicated they would adopt cost-allocation measures. Among them, the majority planned to either share the additional costs with customers (51%) or pass them on in full (30%).
• Regarding fuel price outlook, nearly half (47%) of air traders expect fuel prices to remain elevated for at least three months (34%) or to rise further in the near term (13%).
• Following the EU’s removal of the €150 low-value duty exemption threshold, the most commonly cited impacts among affected companies were “More complex customs clearance procedures, affecting efficiency and lead time” (30%), “Customers becoming more price sensitive” (28%), and “Overall cost increase (tariffs, customs declaration/ clearance fees, and related charges)” (23%).
• To adapt to the EU customs regulatory changes, companies expressed interest in learning more about customs-related requirements, particularly “Customs clearance procedures and processes” (28%), “Customs declaration documentation requirements” (22%), and “Customs duties (based on HS codes) and other related handling fees” (18%).

Mr Edmond LAI, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “Hong Kong’s air trade outlook continued to strengthen in Q3 2026, with the Overall Air Trade Index reaching levels close to the peak of Q2 2023, driven by sustained growth in both (re-)exports and imports. The broad-based improvement across major markets, particularly the Americas and Asia Pacific, together with stronger performance in key product categories, reflects the sector’s resilience amid an evolving trade environment. While developments in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz may place upward pressure on freight rates and fuel costs, air traders are proactively adapting through cost-management measures and operational optimisation. Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic about the sector’s growth momentum.”

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Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & Parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier items and other items that do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.