DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Third Quarter of 2024

Release Date: 22 Jul, 2024

REPORT SUMMARY

The Overall Air Trade Index showed a slight recovery and has reached its highest level since the beginning of 2024. However, local air traders are anticipating a higher air freight price in the second half of 2024 due to Red Sea incident.

• Overall Air Trade Index increased by 2.0 points to 41.2 points in Q3 2024. The growth was driven by (Re)-Exports, Urgent orders, positive performance in Europe and Americas.
• Online Index showed a modest improvement with 0.7 point increment, primarily driven by Urgent Shipment.
• Due to the Red Sea incident, 70% of local air traders expected an upward pressure on the air freight price in the second half of 2024.
• The US recently announced an increase in imported tariffs on certain China-made products or parts. Among the 45% of air traders who were affected by the new tariffs, 35% of them plan to raise their prices to offset the extra tariff costs, and 26% of them intend to expedite the shipment delivery.
• 78% of local air traders are willing to contribute to reducing carbon emissions and 88% of them are willing to spend up to 10% of their logistics costs in achieving this mission.

Mr Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “The latest overall Air Trade Index continues to rise, recording the highest level in the past five quarters, primarily driven by the increase in the (re)-export index, which narrows the gap with the import index. In terms of market, the growth in the overall Air Trade Index was mainly driven by European and American markets, offsetting the decline in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, the China-U.S. trade relationship remains uncertain this quarter, with 70% of the surveyed air traders indicating upward pressure on air trade prices. As the U.S. has recently imposed higher tariffs on more Chinese imported products, 45% of the respondents said they were affected, of which one-third (35%) stated that they would raise prices to offset the additional tariffs. Among the remaining 55% of respondents who were not affected, 28% of them would explore other markets. We encourage air traders to deploy contingency plans in advance.

On the other hand, the air trade industry remains committed to sustainability and the reduction of carbon emissions. Nearly 90% of air traders are willing to raise an additional 10% of logistics costs for this goal. In contrast, 22% have not yet participated in carbon emission reduction, nearly half due to the pressure of cost increases, and one-third (35%) stated that their companies have not yet implemented ESG. This suggests that companies taking the lead in ESG implementation can help drive related developments. Therefore, HKPC steadfastly backs the green transformation on the industry-wide level. Innovative solutions and more leveraging of low-carbon technologies are offered to firms in helping them to achieve sustainability and cope with relevant challenges.”

Download the latest report of DTI (PDF version) (Text-only version).

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Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & Parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier items and other items that do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.