DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Fourth Quarter of 2022

Release Date: 20 Oct, 2022

REPORT SUMMARY

Despite approaching the traditional peak season, concerns among air traders over weak consumption demand, high logistic cost, as well as inflation have made the overall trade index retreat again in Q4 2022.

• The Overall Air Trade Index retreated again after a recovery from Q3 2022. Traders have bigger concerns on import, with a plunge of 6.8 points in Air Imports Index observed. On the other hand, Europe and Apparel and Clothing were the most suffered market and air-freighted goods respectively. Although the index for Americas has reached its lowest point over the past 2 years, it was still the second highest among markets.
• All sub-indices, i.e. Sales Volume Index, Product Variety and Shipment Urgency Index dropped by 3 to 5 points respectively.
• Online B2C business outlook has fallen back to the pre-booming level in Q1 2021. In particular, the proportion of air traders expecting an increase in online B2C business in Q4 2022 (8%) has fallen back to a similar level in Q1 2021, after accounting for 24%-32% over the preceding six quarters.
• 27% of local air traders held negative expectation towards the coming traditional peak (Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve). Over half (56%) of them cited “weak consumption demand” as the reason, while over one-third mentioned “high shipping cost” (36%) and “inflation” (34%) respectively. On the other hand, more than half (56%) of the air traders expect their business to be negatively affected by the latest developments of the China-US relations.
• 18% of air traders are optimistic about the coming traditional peak due to the perceived return to normalcy after COVID (43%).

Mr Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “Although the profitability of local air traders remained relatively stable in Q3 2022, all key indices recorded significant declines in the traditional peak season of Q4 2022, reflecting the impacts associated with inflation driven by the appreciation of US dollars, such as high logistic cost and weak consumption demand. Air traders need to be prepared to survive under these tough conditions. On the other hand, the expectations that Hong Kong will be joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement will create new opportunities for the local air trade industry in the long-run. Hence, air traders must formulate medium-to-long-term plans to be ready to seize on these opportunities.”

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Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies associated with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier service and other items which do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.