DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)

DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").

DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.

The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.

DTI – Third Quarter of 2023

Release Date: 20 Jul, 2023

REPORT SUMMARY

In Q3 2023, Overall Air Trade Index retreated after a big jump last quarter under declining sales volume. However, it was still at a higher level compared with the time during the fifth wave of the pandemic which took place early last year.

• Exports showed a relatively strong drop which was mainly dragged down by Americas market and Food & Beverages.
• Only 15% of local air traders expected additional sales volume before the Golden Week in October.
• All sub-indices, markets and commodities suffered drops when compared with last quarter while online B2C registered growths in Product Variety and Urgent Shipment but slipped in Sales Volume. This aligns with the general trend that sales volume is the factor showing the largest drop.
• The removal of the mask mandate in Hong Kong in March 2023 enabled the society to resume normalcy in full. Along with this, 5 percentage points more air traders reported profitability improvement in Q2 2023. Looking back at the COVID-19 pandemic period, the start of COVID-19 in February 2020 hit local air traders the hardest with 68% reported deteriorated business performance and 10% reflected growth. Their profitability was getting better in the following quarters before the fifth wave of the pandemic (Q1 2022).
• With Hong Kong eyeing a green and sustainable future, zero emissions have emerged as one of the big trends in the city. 64% of local air traders revealed they were willing to take part in initiatives to reduce carbon emissions.

Mr Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of HKPC, commented, “This quarter’s results align with the downtrend in External Merchandise Trade Statistics in April and May 2023 announced by C&SD^# that the air trade industry in Hong Kong is facing challenges from the external environment. Retreats in indices were discovered in most markets, covering the majority of the air-freighted commodities. In particular, a larger drop was discovered in Americas which was dragged down by its (re-)export performance. As the risk of economic recession in the US persists, enterprises are advised to prepare themselves by proactively expanding into other markets to address mid-to-long-term challenges. On the other hand, we are pleased to see that nearly two-thirds of the surveyed air traders are willing to take part in reducing emissions. Given the HKSAR Government’s commitment to halving its carbon emissions by 2035, the air trade industry is set to become one of the key drivers of sustainable development. Enterprises are advised to start reviewing their daily operations for areas that can reduce their carbon footprint. HKPC will also support enterprises in setting appropriate carbon reduction targets and adopting more low-carbon technologies to facilitate the green transformation of industries.”

^#Source: Census and Statistics Department

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Download of DTI Quarterly Report

Methodology

Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]

Readings

• Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
• An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
• The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.

Demographics

• Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & Parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier items and other items that do not belong to the categories listed above).
• Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
• Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.

Disclaimer

This report contains survey result based on research findings.  HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.

Enquiry

For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.