DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index ("DTI") is a quarterly survey implemented by the Hong Kong Productivity Council ("HKPC"), and commissioned by DHL Express (Hong Kong) Limited ("DHL").
DTI is the first-of-its-kind in Hong Kong, offering publicly available market intelligence for local enterprises, especially SMEs which typically have limited resources or access to information, enabling all to take reference from a comprehensive business review of the sector in which they operate.
The Overall Index represents the air trade market outlook for the surveying quarter, in respect of import and (re-)export. The research also studies the underlying trends in business attributes, markets and air-freighted commodities, thus assisting local enterprises in arriving at a primed view of the business outlook of their markets.
DTI - Third Quarter of 2019
Release Date: July 31, 2019
The outlook for the quarter remains uncertain. However, sentiment on exports to the US contracted only moderately, as only one third of the total traders subject to the fresh wave of tariffs. Of those are affected, half said additional tax were shared among the sellers and buyers. Exports to Mainland China and other Asia Pacific are also under pressure.
The current survey took place before the G20 summit in Osaka, and after the US introduced its latest 25% tariffs on US$200bn worth of Mainland Chinese goods. The market continued to take a wait-and-watch approach, with traders awaiting the resumption of talks between the presidents of the world’s two largest economies.
The outlook for Q3 2019 continued to dampen, as market was stuck in conservative mode ahead of trade talks between Xi and Trump.
In spite of the total trade tariffs effective across US$250bn worth of Mainland Chinese goods, only about one third of respondents said their own trade would be subject to additional taxes.
About half (51%) of respondents affected by US additional tariff of US$250bn Mainland Chinese goods (Section 301) the tax would be shared between sellers and buyers, while 46% said buyers would bear the full cost. Only 3% said the full cost would be borne by sellers.
Exports to Mainland China and other markets in Asia Pacific are under greater pressure, due to softened demand.
Dr Lawrence Cheung, Chief Innovation Officer of the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC), shared, “With the persistent uncertainty in the global economy, the industry hence reacts with caution to the outlook of growth in trade. With such changeable business environment, enterprises are advised to be prepared for the challenges from the trade issues such as diversifying their target markets to mitigate risks. The Dedicated Fund on Branding, Upgrading and Domestic Sales (BUD Fund) then comes in as an effective support from the Government to help local enterprises in domestic or external market expansion and development.”
Download of DTI Quarterly Report
Index Calculation: Index = [100 x (Percentage of samples responding "Positive") ] + [50 x (Percentage of samples responding "Neutral") ] + [0 x (Percentage of samples responding "Negative") ]
- Ratios of collected responses are used to form the indices.
- An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
- The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.
- Respondents are Hong Kong-based companies associated with either inbound or outbound air trade. It includes Watches, Clocks & Jewellery, Apparel & Clothing Accessories, Electronic Products & parts, Gifts, Toys & Houseware, Food & Beverage and Others (including courier service and other items which do not belong to the categories listed above).
- Over 600 samples are collected in each quarter.
- Sample companies are randomly selected from publicly available directories.
This report contains survey result based on research findings. HKPC will not be liable for any loss, mistake, delay, action or non-action by viewers of this report.
For more details about the Index, please contact HKPC at tel. (852) 2788 5306.